Top Economist’s Bold Call: Recession Not Inevitable

As the economy defies the naysayers, we’re witnessing a resurgence of consumer-driven optimism, particularly among those with higher incomes. Despite ominous warnings of doom and gloom from some economic “gurus,” recent data is showing that consumers resumed spending over the summer. It seems that low unemployment rates, rising nominal wages, and stock market valuations near all-time highs are providing the backdrop for this unexpected economic vigor. So, what on earth is going on here? Could it be that the left’s predictions of an economic Armageddon are a tad exaggerated?

In the aftermath of Trump’s election, critics were more than eager to proclaim the sky was indeed falling. Yet here we are, shaking our heads in disbelief as the economy manages to hold its own, with growth projected near a robust 4%. Compare that to the not-so-stellar performance under the previous administration, which could be humorously dubbed as “The Reign of Error.” Sure, inflation might be a pesky issue—hovering slightly higher than desired—but let’s not forget the turbulent 9% inflation we witnessed earlier. A difference between 9% and 3% inflation is no small feat. Funny how a little context shifts the narrative, isn’t it?

Gas prices are another pleasant surprise, with prices approaching $3 a gallon or less in some parts of the country. It appears those family road trips might not break the bank after all. For those keeping score, the increase in real income for American families is nothing to scoff at either, jumping $1100 in purchasing power in just nine months. Credit for these surprising statistics goes largely to increased domestic oil and gas production spearheaded by—you guessed it—Trump’s policies. Toss a dash of deregulation savings into the mix and you have an economy ticking along quite smoothly indeed.

But alas, not everything is sunshine and roses. One sticking point remains: tariffs. The tariffs, though debated in terms of impact, have been linked to some price increases. However, one can’t help but smirk at how critics projected economic collapse in response to these tariffs, yet here we are, pondering a booming economy. It’s almost as if predictions of failure only seem to bolster the economy’s resolve to thrive.

As the nation navigates these economic currents, young people find themselves staring down a steeper uphill climb. For many, optimism seems elusive, thanks in part to the challenges of launching their careers. Jobs are out there, but not necessarily for those armed with degrees in subjects like sociology or ethnic studies. The key, it seems, lies in pursuing careers in science, technology, engineering, and math. Meanwhile, perhaps consideration should be given to addressing other challenges, such as the proliferation of investment companies like BlackRock acquiring real estate, making home ownership a distant dream for many young Americans. And so, as the phones remain glued to our hands, we continue to watch and wait for the next chapter in this saga of economic surprises.

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Keith Jacobs

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