In a surprising turn of events in the Middle East, it looks like cautious optimism might actually have a chance. The leader of the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen has pledged to monitor Israel’s compliance with a ceasefire deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This agreement, set in motion by the Trump administration, is designed to end more than two years of war and includes plans to return hostages held by Hamas. Anyone sitting on the edge of their seat can finally scoot back a little; we’re in Phase One.
The Israeli cabinet has given a tentative nod to this ceasefire, negotiated in Egypt, and if everything goes as expected, it should go into effect pronto. However, let’s not get too excited too soon. These sorts of deals have a funny way of combusting just before the ink dries. The families of the hostages are rightly waiting with bated breath. After all, until those hostages are safe, no amount of paperwork can ease their minds.
Of course, optimism has been lent a cautious shadow by Hamas’s reluctance to disarm. It’s like they’re giving with one hand and holding a stick behind their back with the other. Israel has agreed to control a large portion of Gaza, but if Hamas hands over the hostages, they lose their main bargaining chip. And let’s face it, keeping the region a hotbed of tension for international negotiators might just be part of their long game.
The hope across the Middle East is palpable. From Saudi Arabia to the UAE, countries are beginning to see a future that doesn’t involve oil-fueled rivalry but rather normalization with Israel. If anything, they want to be on the right side of history this time. But standing in the way are the usual suspects—Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, who are clinging to the past like it’s a golden age that never was. They may not be so eager to relinquish their roles as regional misfits. Meanwhile, whispers of full support from the United States to take down Hamas once and for all make for dramatic subplots that could rival even the most elaborate TV series.
With Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff making appearances in Israel, and President Trump expected to travel soon, it feels like a live show where everyone plays to the audience back home. Both Israelis and Palestinians make statements that suit their respective domestic populations, which may or may not align with the spirit of the current agreement. It’s a high-stakes tug-of-war, and while hostages appear to be the focal point, many eyes are on the broader geopolitical chessboard. Here’s to hoping that when Monday rolls around, the promised release of hostages won’t just be an optimistic headline but a reality—perhaps a small step towards a less tumultuous future for the region.
