In a disturbing turn of events, the shadowy presence of al-Qaeda is re-emerging in West Africa, specifically in Mali. This time, it’s through a group known as Jamaat Nusraat al-Islam Wuslamin, or JN for short. This formidable faction has amassed roughly 6,000 militants and is poised to wreak havoc just outside the capital city, Bamako. As they choke off supplies of food and fuel, residents find themselves scurrying for resources, while the U.S. embassy is making plans to evacuate. If Bamako falls, it seems likely that JN could tighten its grip on the entire country.
But what are these militants really after? After nearly 25 years in the global war on terror, one must wonder how groups like al-Qaeda continue to gain traction. The roots of JN trace back to a man named Iad Agali, a former tribal leader who abandoned his whiskey drinks and rock and roll lifestyle for a hardline brand of Islam. In 2017, he unified three jihadist groups under the JN banner and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda. Since then, they have skillfully exploited weaknesses in governance across West Africa, leading to the Sahel region becoming a new epicenter for global terrorism.
The situation worsened significantly when local military officers began staging coups, frustrated by a lack of progress against insurgent groups. Beginning with a coup in Mali in 2020, military leaders replaced Western support with Russian mercenaries known as Wagner Group. Instead of quelling the insurgency, these forces spread fear and chaos in the very communities they were supposed to protect, leading many villagers to seek refuge under the protection of JN instead. With resources being siphoned off from gold mines and drug trafficking routes, JN has been consolidating power, all while waiting for the opportune moment to strike.
That moment arrived this past summer, when Wagner Group mercenaries withdrew from the region, leaving a security void. JN was quick to fill this gap, capturing vast supplies of weapons and seizing control of vital supply routes. They’ve employed strategic attacks on fuel tankers, crippling the military’s operational capabilities. This has created a dire situation in Bamako, where long lines form at fuel stations and power outages have become the norm. The spiraling cost of living has exacerbated an already serious food crisis, leaving residents vulnerable and desperate.
Despite these challenges, Mali’s military forces attempt to fight back, using drone strikes and raids to target JN insurgents. However, the militants remain highly mobile and skilled at navigating the challenging terrain of the Sahel. With control over the rural areas, JN has established a powerful foothold that threatens to envelop the cities without the need for traditional combat tactics. The insight of experts suggests that JN is not simply a group looking to conquer territory through warfare. Instead, they aim to destabilize the current regime, allowing it to collapse from within, similar to how events unfolded in Syria and Afghanistan in recent years.
With the future of Mali hanging in the balance, leaders in their military junta have begun seeking assistance from the United States, discussing potential cooperation against these radical elements. However, a shadow looms in the form of JN’s aggressive push for hardline Islamic law. Analysts express concern that, while JN may not be equipped to govern effectively, their ideological ambitions are expanding into neighboring countries like Burkina Faso and Niger. As history has shown, an insecure state can quickly become a breeding ground for extremists who are all too eager to take advantage of chaos. The world watches closely, as Mali’s challenges may foreshadow a resurgence of global terror that could have far-reaching implications in the years to come.
