Trump’s Cuba Oil Deal: Will It End Blackouts or Make Things Worse?

In a twist that has many raised eyebrows, a Russian oil tanker has recently docked in Cuba, delivering the island nation its first oil shipment in over two months. This delivery comes on the heels of President Trump’s oil blockade, which has stirred up quite a bit of controversy. While one might assume the arrival of 730,000 barrels of crude oil would be a reason for celebration, the truth is that this shipment is merely a drop in the bucket for a country grappling with an energy crisis that has left its citizens in the dark—literally.

The situation in Cuba is dire. The island has experienced seven nation-wide blackouts in just the past year and a half, demonstrating a lack of reliability in its electric grid. The root cause of these energy woes lies in the aging infrastructure. Roughly 40% of Cuba’s electricity is generated by seven oil-powered plants that date back several decades. These dinosaurs of energy production are not only past their prime but are also suffering from neglect and an alarming lack of proper maintenance. Add to that the fact that they predominantly rely on corrosive Cuban crude oil, and you have a recipe for disaster.

The energy crisis in Cuba is further complicated by the intertwined nature of its electric grid. The issues at one plant can lead to cascading failures throughout the entire system. For instance, the most recent blackout was attributed to problems at the Novita’s plant located in central Cuba. In previous cases, Cuba’s largest power plant, Antonio Geras, has been the culprit, leaving thousands without electricity. Consequently, the remaining power source—the newly constructed smaller distributed power stations—has become increasingly vital.

These smaller stations provide another 40% of Cuba’s electricity, but they are heavily reliant on imported oil. Trump’s blockade has significantly restricted those oil shipments, compounding the nation’s energy struggles. Although the blockade itself doesn’t directly cause the blackouts, it has certainly exacerbated the situation by limiting the effectiveness and reliability of these smaller plants. As a result, many Cubans are forced to endure hours of scheduled power cuts each day. Transit services have been drastically reduced, international flights have been halted, and even water supply systems have been crippled—turning daily life into a challenging ordeal for many.

Cuba’s economy is often described as nonfunctional, heavily reliant on subsidies from foreign nations. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the current struggles of Venezuela have left the Cuban economy in a precarious position. Although the island produces enough crude oil to power its larger plants, it has severely lagged in developing renewable energy sectors. This means that while new oil deliveries offer a glimmer of hope, any meaningful relief is still far off. After unloading, the oil must make its way through a complex network of refineries, and only then can it be converted into diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil. By the time it hits the roads, weeks or even months may have passed, leaving the people of Cuba still searching for answers.

If regular oil shipments continue, there is a slim chance that Cuba might see some improvement in its energy situation. However, the present reality is grim. The state-run electric utility is brimming with financial deficits, and without a consistent influx of oil, the blackout woes will likely persist. As the tropical sun sets over the island each evening, many Cubans are left wondering whether the lights will ever come back on.

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Keith Jacobs

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