In the latest geopolitical chess match, President Trump has once again made a bold move, suggesting that if a deal with the enigmatic Thrron isn’t reached by Wednesday, the attacks on Iran will certainly be back on the table. Meanwhile, Iran appears not to be content with sitting idly by, as they assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, the infamous chessboard’s strategic square. This plays right into a classic game of cat and mouse, and it’s time to see who blinks first.
It’s quite the spectacle to watch Iran say they’re in control of the Strait of Hormuz, especially when those waters practically have the U.S. Navy’s name all over them. But hey, if Iran wants to pretend it’s all theirs, let them have their little moment in the spotlight. It’s as if they’re playing house but with ships, and when the reality of their claim hits, it’s head-on with the might of American naval power. The oil price dropped by more than $9, settling at about $85 per barrel after Iran’s announcement, showing they’re clearly not as nonchalant as their proclamations suggest.
As oil trader Phil Flynn points out, this isn’t so much about control as it is about confidence. Iran, it seems, is having second thoughts about any potential arrangement with President Trump. They probably hoped Trump would lift the blockade—a hope dashed much like their lofty ambitions of regional dominance. They seem to be employing scare tactics, reportedly targeting a few tankers, but let’s be honest—it’s nothing more than desperate saber-rattling. President Trump’s administration has shown they won’t be easily intimidated, and all this does is reveal the lengths Iran is willing to go to in a vain effort to shore up their diminishing influence.
Despite the dust-up at the Strait of Hormuz, there’s a silver lining. If the ceasefire had held, and Iran hadn’t played pirate-y games, consumers might have been blessed with gasoline prices dropping to below $4 a gallon. Instead, the average is $4.05—a reminder that even international hijinks have real-world consequences at the pump. Still, this will be a momentary affair since, as Flynn rightly claims, the United States is winning this economic tug-of-war. Iran’s parlor tricks are becoming less effective as traders and markets start to see through the bluster.
One can almost feel a certain glee from Flynn when suggesting President Trump has something up his sleeve. After all, Trump isn’t exactly known for being predictable when it comes to foreign policy. If history is any indicator, it’s safe to say that Iran might have another surprise waiting on the horizon. While the Strait’s shutdown stirs concerns, the wheels of the market are more resilient than Iran gives them credit for. In this continuing saga, all eyes will be on what Trump will unleash next—a tweet, a sanction, or perhaps another tactical move worthy of a master strategist.
