In the latest episode of diplomatic theatrics involving the United States and Cuba, the scales of justice are finally shaking off decades of dust with the possible indictment related to a plane shoot-down years ago. Folks might wonder why it took a whole three decades to contemplate such charges. However, if political maneuvers had Olympic categories, this timing would at least deserve a mention. Some see this move as a symbolic slap to the Cuban regime’s wrist, hinting at the U.S.’s non-military method of regime change aspirations.
The ever-persistent call for Cuba to reimagine its economy is today’s headline. The U.S. is exploring dangling tantalizing carrots like sanctions relief contingent on Cuba pulling itself out of its economic quagmire. But that’s only possible if Havana starts to loosen its grip on citizens’ ability to create wealth. The magic word here is “incentives,” which appear to currently hold a position on Cuba’s “banned due to inconvenience” list. No one can deny that the Cuban military and intelligence operatives love divvying up any wealth, ensuring their regime’s buddies always get the largest slice.
Pointing out the industrious nature of the Cuban people, Secretary Rubio spotlighted them as key players who could alleviate their country’s humanitarian crisis if the shackles restraining them could just be loosened. The promise is simple: allow these industrious folks to thrive, and everyone might just start seeing a dramatic decline in misery across Cuba. Of course, the benefits wouldn’t just stop at the island’s shores but would float back to the U.S., preventing any potential waves of folks attempting a risky sea journey towards Florida.
No one wants to wake up to the plot twist of a new migration crisis borne from Cuban instability. Nobody enjoys the thought of extra boats on Florida’s coastline. U.S. interests seem very much aligned with a stable and prosperous Cuba—not out of sheer altruism, but more of a strategic desire to have a thriving neighbor instead of a troublesome one. The charm offensive, armed with both the carrot of relief and the stick of indictment, seeks exactly that outcome.
As Washington takes careful steps—sending the CIA director for island visits and wrestling with the age-old question of affecting change without harming citizens—they’re trying to send a message. Change your ways, and the possibility of lighter sanctions could be on the table. While getting a regime’s attention without pounding its people into the ground presents quite the diplomatic puzzle, the effort continues. One can’t help but wonder if this is the start of a more practical relationship or just another chapter in the well-worn dance of diplomacy. Stay tuned, and keep popcorn at the ready.
