In yet another chapter of Middle Eastern drama that makes a soap opera look tame by comparison, Bahrain has intercepted Iranian missiles and drones headed for its airspace, with some targeted at regional buddy Kuwait. This episode unfolded mere hours after Central Command announced they were treating themselves to a little recreational activity—namely, retaliatory strikes on Iran’s radar sites. Of course, the region is on edge again, as such playful exchanges tend to rekindle fears of war resuming in the Persian Gulf. Apparently, there’s nothing like a few missile launches to keep everyone on their toes.
The Iranian script seems predictable to anyone paying half attention. When the Central Command had their radar-site fun, Iran replied by firing seven ballistic missiles. Luckily, six didn’t get very far, and the seventh seems to have lost its way. But what else can you expect from a country notorious for making a big fuss without really getting anywhere? Former CentCom deputy commander, Vice Admiral Robert Harwood, seemingly shares this sentiment, pretty much implying that expecting Iran to hold a peace talk is like expecting cats and dogs to discuss weather patterns. It’s just not going to happen.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to play the region’s puppet master, pulling strings in Lebanon despite a US-backed ceasefire that’s supposed to be keeping everyone calm. The foreign minister of Iran warns ominously that if fighting continues, wars could spill over on neighboring lands. This statement effectively suggests that Iran’s hand is joyously in everyone’s business, whether they like it or not. There’s also chatter that a delegation from Pakistan has swung by Iran, apparently with the wild ambition to mediate some semblance of agreement between Iran and the US. It’s always amusing to see diplomatic efforts being made when one party insists on acting like the neighborhood bully.
While all this continues, Iran is also in a price-tagging spree, demanding between $12 billion and $24 billion in sanctions relief to look seriously at any interim deal. The demands are akin to asking for a treasure chest before even starting a treasure hunt. Logic would suggest that President Trump isn’t likely to bow to such ridiculous terms. After all, the focus should be on keeping Iran from launching a nuclear program, a particularly tricky situation given the region’s high stakes.
Optimists might still cling to President Trump’s assertion that Iran wants a deal, though skeptics might argue he’s not holding his breath. With the possibility of another round of military strikes pending, it’s worth questioning if Iran’s current leadership is playing hardball with the assumption that Americans will fold under pressure. But if history tells us anything, it’s that the United States doesn’t like being pushed around, and that goes double when security and stability are at risk. In the absurd geopolitical theater of the Middle East, Iran should certainly not count their chickens—or in this case, their missiles—before they hatch.
