Keane’s Warning: Never Let This Happen Again

Ah, Iran negotiations, a topic that never quite leaves the headlines, like last week’s leftover meatloaf—unwanted but somehow inevitable. So here we are again, with another attempt to “lock in” a final deal with Iran. The countdown has started on yet another 60-day negotiation phase. But let’s be honest, new talk plans with Iran are akin to digging up fossils; you never know if you’ll find something valuable or just a heap of old bones.

As expected, not everyone is thrilled about these negotiations. Even the Supreme Leader of Iran has expressed skepticism, not that his disapproval is anything new. Apparently, he’s reluctantly granted permission for discussions, suggesting that the esteemed president has made some serious promises about safeguarding Iranian rights. Yet, isn’t it amusing how promises in politics often resemble mirages in the desert? There, but not really.

Switching from military to economic means as a strategy seems to be a decision driven by practicality—or perhaps fear. Let’s face it, the previous strategy was akin to trying to teach an old cat new tricks. The earlier objective seemed to be about weakening Iran enough for it to topple from within, with military intervention as the ace up the sleeve. However, it seems the ace turned into a joker card, and economic objectives now take the front seat. The oil prices are already through the roof; who wants to imagine them making it to the moon?

Now, the Arabs have concerns about their oil and gas infrastructure being in Iran’s crosshairs. Their unease seems well-founded. No one wants their financial backbone to become the next bullseye on Iran’s dartboard. True, military folks claimed that they had a protective net ready, but then again, talk is often cheaper than action, especially when the stakes are this high. The decision to open the Straits of Hormuz seems more like keeping the lid on Pandora’s box in hopes of avoiding global economic turmoil.

And let’s not overlook the perennial drama surrounding Israel and Hezbollah. The Iranians are playing their classic game of placing the wedge between the United States and Israel. They seem to want the impossible, suggesting that Israel should refrain from retaliating against Hezbollah attacks. Here’s a thought experiment: what if the shoe were on the other foot, and rockets were flying into Texas? The idea that anyone would sit back and just watch is laughable, at best.

So, the 60-day window is open, and the negotiations loom on the horizon once more. Will this be a grand success or just another entry into the world’s longest-running diplomatic sitcom? Only time will tell, but if history is any guide, we shouldn’t hold our breath—or it might be gone before the final ink has dried on any “deal.” And there you have it, another episode in the show of international chess where the pawns never quite make it off the board.

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Keith Jacobs

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