In the realm of international diplomacy and military strategy, the sea breeze has become a metaphor for tense standoffs rather than tranquil serenity. Just when everyone thought it was safe to dive back into geopolitics, the blockade games have returned like an unwelcome sequel. The U.S. has decided to flex its naval muscles once again by re-implementing a blockade against Iran, while also disabling its first tanker amidst this renewed effort. It seems Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, sitting snug as a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, is back in the spotlight to shed light on these maneuvers.
Admiral Montgomery wasted no time in pointing out what should be obvious to anyone keeping an eye on Iranian antics. The blockade aims to block Iran from raking in billions from fossil fuel sales. Now, let’s pause here for a second to appreciate the irony. Iran and fossil fuel sales go together like peanut butter and jelly, except this jelly is worth 15 to 17 billion dollars a month. That’s a lot of sandwiches. But the United States, with its familiar mix of hope and coercion, is keen to use this economic squeeze to press Iran into legitimate negotiations. Whether Iran will come to the table or continue to flip it is another question entirely.
There’s more at play than just stopping oil tankers, as the Institute for the Study of War suggests that Iran’s sporadic attacks on shipping may actually scare shipping companies into compliance. It’s as if Iran pulled a page straight out of a gangster movie: intimidate a few, and the rest fall in line. But fear not—a combination of blockades and strategic strikes intends to knock the wind out of Iran’s blustering sails.
Admiral Montgomery seems to think the initial blockade had its merits, although he admits that merchant ship owners can be as jittery as a squirrel in a room full of rocking chairs. It doesn’t take much for one attack to send them scurrying. Nonetheless, he places faith in America’s ability to neutralize threats around crucial shipping lanes.
Perhaps the most entertaining part of all this diplomatic drama comes from the President’s buoyant proclamation during a rally in Pennsylvania. With the enthusiasm of someone who just discovered a new ice cream flavor, the President declared Iran’s defeat is right around the corner. Yet, like a well-seasoned military strategist, Montgomery plays it cool, suggesting the timeline for Iran’s backdown is more like months than days. In the world of international diplomacy, sometimes things don’t move as fast as a campaign slogan. But fear not, the President’s optimism isn’t waning anytime soon, even if the troops on the ground have their doubts.
