In what could be described as a surprising twist in international politics, President Trump has thrown a curveball by announcing that a peace deal with Iran might be just around the corner. The news comes at a time when many thought the United States was gearing up for another round of intense military actions against this long-time adversary. According to the President, an agreement with Iran’s supreme leader might see the light of day possibly as soon as this weekend. Yes, you heard it right, folks; even as the nation gears up for more strikes, a peace agreement could sneak in through the backdoor.

Questions have been buzzing around whether this deal includes any sweetening of the pot from the United States. As it turns out, the plan is to lift the blockade on Iran—a significant concession that one might expect would need some serious guarantees in return. But with the ink not yet dry on this imaginary parchment and echoing with the President’s bravado, many doubt the feasibility of such an agreement ever seeing completion. The administration has been clear, though: there’s no money flowing to Tehran, and the blockade stays until Iran behaves more neighborly in the Strait.

However, one can’t help but wonder about the likelihood of this pact being anything more than a fleeting headline. Cynicism aside, some pundits are placing bets that it’s just smoke and mirrors, particularly given the Iranian regime’s history of not playing by anyone’s rules but their own. Tehran has already dispatched mixed signals, announcing no substantial decisions have been made, and they are not about to sacrifice their “red lines” anytime soon. It seems Iran is less concerned with what America’s paper tigers might scribble and more with keeping their ambitions on track.

This wouldn’t be the first time a high-profile deal with Iran fizzled out before it could even take a form beyond speculative enthusiasm. With the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) still clashing with U.S. forces, one wonders how a handshake in Geneva or anywhere else changes that hostile reality on the ground. Reports of the IRGC shooting down U.S. helicopters do little to instill confidence in these peace talks and more to highlight that these negotiations might still have a few kinks to iron out—if they ever iron out at all.

While the Trump administration chugs along, expressing optimism about breaking new grounds in diplomacy by wielding a hefty military stick, skepticism remains high. It’s generally accepted that projects like these need more than just pomp and circumstance; they require substantial backing and concrete steps from both sides. For now, any shadow of a deal remains largely that—a shadow. Given the complexity of Middle Eastern geopolitics, more than a “hope for the best” attitude and humor-laden optimism will be necessary to navigate this turbulent diplomatic terrain effectively. So for now, we’ll continue watching this space, popcorn in hand, as this saga likely unfolds with more turns than a Hollywood blockbuster.