In the ever-escalating saga of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Trump claims some semblance of hope for a cease-fire deal after recent discussions with both Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin. Ah, what a tangled web of geopolitics it weaves! But anyone who keeps up with this narrative knows it’s like a soap opera that just keeps on giving. The drama now is centered around those five Ukrainian territories still catching Russia’s covetous eyes, and one could almost hear the eyerolls globally over any optimistic talk of resolving who keeps what.
Enter expert opinions—chief among them, a former CIA top dog in Moscow, Dan Hoffman. He stands firm on the idea that Putin hasn’t changed his agenda, which seemed to be toppling Ukraine’s government to install a puppet regime that’s more favorable to the Kremlin. Apparently, the notion of a peaceful, sovereign Ukraine living its best life didn’t make it onto Putin’s vision board. And who can blame Ukraine for standing guard? Having only lost about 18% of their territory to Russia, they’ve shown resilience that’s nothing short of remarkable.
Now, in old-school storytelling fashion, the plot thickens around negotiations focused on protecting energy infrastructures. One can only imagine the sheer joy of a dictator whose army can’t quite keep up as he contemplates what he might bargain at a negotiating table. But the real kicker is the potential cease-fire hinging upon whether the parties can agree to quit targeting each other’s energy resources. You know, those pesky facilities that Putin just so happens to depend on to bankroll this misadventure of his.
Of course, the whole notion of a happy ending does demand realism. Let’s not kid ourselves; the war ends when one side is simply too tired to continue or manages to cobble together a victory of sorts. Unfortunately, Putin doesn’t seem tired or terribly interested in counting his losses. And while some might fantasize about a moment where Putin wakes up and decides to rejoin the civilized world, reality suggests otherwise.
The Trump administration finds itself in a unique position where it’s nudging, or perhaps shoving, Russia and Ukraine toward the negotiation table. The idea is juicy—that Putin might be tempted by some carrot of revived economic relations or face a stick in the form of an even more heavily armed Ukraine. Despite the presidential back-and-forth, it remains decidedly murky if Russia will listen or if it’s all part of keeping up the diplomatic appearances. Optimism is scarce, so those paying attention might wish for the best while expecting the worst—because, hey, when it comes to international relations, clinging to cautious pessimism seems just prudent enough.
