In a fascinating turn of events, President Trump is once again defying historical trends and aiming for a political hat trick that his predecessors have struggled to achieve. As history shows, no party in control of the White House and both congressional chambers since 1992 has managed to keep all three in a midterm election. However, President Trump, with his signature bravado, is determined to buck this trend. He is gearing up for what he declares will be an epic midterm victory, suggesting that anything less might lead to an impeachment attempt. Yes, you heard it right—Trump seems to think losing the midterm might result in impeachment, which is, if nothing else, a vivid depiction of his belief in political brinkmanship.

What is sure to keep the political pundits busy is Trump’s strategy with Venezuela, a nation with the largest oil reserves in the world. In a daring move, U.S. forces conducted a raid to nab Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife, aiming to turn the tides. If one thought Trump’s plotting was merely a domestic affair, think again; he has his eyes set on opening up the Venezuelan market to U.S. refiners. This announcement that the Venezuelan government will hand over 30 to 50 million barrels of oil is touted as a major victory, although one might humorously note that this oil isn’t quite a “gift,” but rather needs to be managed by the U.S. to ostensibly help the Venezuelan people. Certainly, a masterclass in international transaction and goodwill.

Now, imagine the orchestration required by the Energy Secretary, tasked with ensuring the smooth execution of this plan. The importance of this oil, said to be ideal for refineries in Houston and Louisiana, is emphasized by former Energy Secretary Dan Bruet. The prospect of Venezuelan oil being available again is hyped as a game-changer for U.S. refiners. Still, with the U.S. consuming around 19 million barrels per day, this sounds less like a windfall and more like a favorable breeze. The small batch of crude is positioned as a droplet in the global oil-demand ocean, yet the political ripples it could cause might just revitalize American refineries. And in the world of Trumpian politics, every drop counts.

But there’s more to this intriguing plot. With Venezuela potentially open for business under this new framework, the White House is endeavoring to woo energy executives to take a leap of faith and invest in Venezuela’s decrepit oil infrastructure. There’s hesitation, as one would expect, considering the uncertain situation in Venezuela, compounded by the country’s dilapidated infrastructure and security concerns. The likes of Chevron and Exxon are likely approaching these prospects with a mix of excitement and skepticism, eager to exploit known Venezuelan market potentials, but cautious about the risks. With Chris Wright meeting executives, he will need to pull more than just sharp pencils out of his hat to convince them to invest in this venture.

In typical Trump style, the entire spectacle fits into a broader geopolitical strategy. The Trump administration has told interim President Delcy Rodriguez that the Venezuelan oil industry comeback requires kicking out geopolitical adversaries like China and Russia. This could indeed signify a complete shake-up of the global order or, at least, paint a brash attempt to do so. If successful, this move could represent a significant pivot in U.S. foreign policy, not just in terms of energy, but as part of a larger strategy to consolidate influence against an increasingly assertive China. With this audacious maneuvering, Trump might just redefine the game, but whether this will chalk up as presidential brilliance or bravado remains to be seen.