As the festive season of Thanksgiving approaches, thoughts should ideally center around gratitude and family gatherings. However, the international stage has its eyes on a different kind of drama. The Trump administration is hoping to corral an end to the enduring conflict between Russia and Ukraine by year’s end. A bold ambition, indeed—one that requires more than just wishful thinking and holiday cheer.
With President Trump dispatching special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow for high-stakes talks with Vladimir Putin, the world watches with cautious optimism—or, perhaps, knowing what we know, more caution than optimism. The talks aim to bring closure to the conflict, with a focus on comprehensive security guarantees for Ukraine. This is akin to crafting a masterpiece in diplomacy, while knowing the canvas might not hold the paint.
Kurt Volker, however, is not holding his breath. He finds Russia’s consistent demands—echoes of President Putin’s wish list from a speech in Alaska—as more of a stubborn retread than a progressive negotiation. It’s almost as if Russia’s engagement in these talks is a strategic delay of the inevitable rather than a genuine commitment to peace. The U.S. and Ukraine, notwithstanding, seem aligned on a plan, though history urges a keen eye on Russia’s past of groundwork-then-backtrack tactics.
On the ground, the situation remains grim. Russian missile and drone attacks in Ukraine persist, underscoring the incongruity between words spoken at negotiation tables and actions taken on battlefields. This is a textbook paradox where leaders speak of a “constructive dialogue” while innocent civilians suffer continued assaults. Ukraine’s pursuit of peace is dogged by these violent reminders that words alone do not end wars.
Is Putin sincerely invested in a peace deal, or is he simply extending an intricate game of geopolitical chess? If one were a betting person, the odds might not rest favorably on altruism. His strategy could likely be angling for the best terms possible with the least amount of compromise—one that ensures Russia’s interests remain front and center.
Meanwhile, challenges brew beyond Eastern Europe, with increasing tensions in the Americas. President Trump also sets his sights on Venezuela, where Nicolas Maduro’s days in power might be numbered—intertwined as they are with the lifeline of the narco trade. Should Maduro’s regime collapse, it could downsize the operations of the cartels that have operated freely under state protection. However, optimism in international politics should remain tempered by realism; regimes fall, but the underlying networks often persist, waiting for the next opportunity.
For now, as the hopeful yet weary negotiators prepare for more talks, the world anticipates possible breakthroughs or, perhaps more likely, stalemates dressed as diplomatic achievements. Whether Steve Witkoff’s mission to Moscow will yield tangible results or mere diplomatic niceties is yet to be seen. Nonetheless, one can only hope that peace—or something resembling it—could be one more thing to be thankful for this season.
