It’s no surprise that the current administration wants to bet big on Venezuelan oil, hoping to pump a whopping $10 billion into its crumbling infrastructure. But the real question is whether this plan has a prayer of being realized any time soon. With the way things are going, optimism might be misplaced unless the risks for investors significantly diminish. Oil companies, like savvy poker players, aren’t about to toss their chips into a pot full of uncertainty without some hefty assurances. They have to know that once they invest, the government isn’t going to change the game on them mid-hand.

Considering the state of affairs, the administration’s executive order looks more like a desperate grasp at straws. The order aims to protect fresh investments from past legal snafus and sanctions. But will this be enough? The potential of backstopping or supporting investments with federal government assistance is on the table, but even the President acknowledges he’d rather not have the U.S. taxpayer foot the bill for such speculative ventures. So, what’s the plan then? Bottom line: companies need more than just pretty words to alleviate their fears of losing money in this high-risk environment.

Getting into the nitty-gritty of Venezuela’s oil industry reveals layers of neglect and decay that would make any investor cringe. Their first job is simply to fix what’s broken — the unglamorous duty of de-bottlenecking and repairing worn-out infrastructure. It’s only once the foundational work is done that expansion and the production of new oil capacities can even be considered. And let’s not forget, converting thick, unrefined Venezuelan oil to something usable by global standards requires more than just elbow grease; it demands technology and cash—lots of it.

But here’s where skepticism creeps in. Despite the lure of 303 billion barrels of proven reserves just waiting to be tapped, there’s a litany of issues that can’t be ignored. A post-Maduro Venezuela sounds promising on paper, but in reality, it’s akin to buying a house without seeing the land it’s built on. The faith in political transitions isn’t exactly high, and the oil companies know that their return on investment could evaporate if those political winds don’t shift predictably.

Now, looking beyond Venezuela, the world’s oil landscape could be due for a shake-up with Iran’s growing unrest. Future disruptions there might easily spike global oil prices, something sure to be on the minds of investors looking at Venezuela as an alternative. Apparently, Iran manages to sidestep sanctions, playing a hefty hand in the market with significant exports, mainly to China. So, as the administration dreams of rescuing Venezuela’s oil future, perhaps they ought to keep an eye on how rapidly changing variables in Middle Eastern politics could derail their aspirations—or maybe, just maybe, bolster them if things spiral in Iran’s oil sector. Either way, it’s a game of high stakes and high risks, with potential rewards that are still very much up in the air.